DDM Analysis: CBSH

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$72.54 - $145.98	$101.04
Multi-Stage	$70.91 - $77.62	$74.21
Blended Fair Value	$87.62
Current Price	$59.76
Upside	46.62%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.04%	5.59%	1.09	1.01	0.96	0.92	0.91	0.85	0.75	0.69	0.65	0.64
YoY Growth	-	-	7.69%	5.70%	3.89%	1.55%	6.48%	13.20%	9.41%	5.22%	2.48%	0.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.75%	2.03%	1.81%	1.49%	1.44%	2.16%	1.70%	1.61%	1.72%	2.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	562.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	414.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	112.60	70.37	42.22
Cash Retained (M)	414.37	414.37	414.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-112.60	-70.37	-42.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	301.77	344.00	372.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	133.25	133.25	133.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.26	2.58	2.79
LTM Dividend per Share	1.12	1.12	1.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.26	2.58	2.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.38	3.70	3.91
WACC / Discount Rate	8.41%	8.41%	8.41%
Growth Rate	3.59%	4.59%	5.59%
Fair Value	$72.54	$101.04	$145.98
Upside / Downside	21.38%	69.07%	144.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	562.98	588.81	615.82	644.07	673.62	704.52	725.65
Payout Ratio	26.40%	39.12%	51.84%	64.56%	77.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.61	230.33	319.23	415.80	520.57	634.07	671.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.41%	8.41%	8.41%
Growth Rate	3.59%	4.59%	5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	210.42	212.45	214.48
Year 2 PV (M)	266.43	271.60	276.82
Year 3 PV (M)	317.04	326.31	335.76
Year 4 PV (M)	362.61	376.82	391.44
Year 5 PV (M)	403.50	423.36	443.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,889.55	8,277.79	8,681.16
Equity Value (M)	9,449.55	9,888.32	10,343.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	133.25	133.25	133.25
Fair Value	$70.91	$74.21	$77.62
Upside / Downside	18.67%	24.18%	29.89%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener