Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. Common Stock (CBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.75 - $38.84$31.22
Multi-Stage$58.80 - $64.87$61.77
Blended Fair Value$46.50
Current Price$24.00
Upside93.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--33.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.534.082.45
Cash Retained (M)30.6730.6730.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.53-4.08-2.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.1326.5828.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.8412.8412.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.882.072.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.882.072.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.75$31.22$38.84
Upside / Downside3.12%30.08%61.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.6732.3432.0231.7031.3831.0732.00
Payout Ratio6.13%22.90%39.68%56.45%73.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.007.4112.7017.8922.9827.9629.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.916.987.05
Year 2 PV (M)11.0711.2911.52
Year 3 PV (M)14.5515.0015.46
Year 4 PV (M)17.4418.1618.91
Year 5 PV (M)19.8020.8321.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)685.18720.86758.01
Equity Value (M)754.95793.13832.86
Shares Outstanding (M)12.8412.8412.84
Fair Value$58.80$61.77$64.87
Upside / Downside144.99%157.38%170.27%

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