DDM Analysis: CAT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$240.10 - $405.22	$312.25
Multi-Stage	$275.69 - $301.79	$288.50
Blended Fair Value	$300.37
Current Price	$477.15
Upside	-37.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.41%	5.03%	5.55	5.38	5.12	4.89	4.71	4.47	4.09	3.84	3.78	3.69
YoY Growth	-	-	3.24%	5.04%	4.63%	3.97%	5.21%	9.28%	6.55%	1.78%	2.39%	8.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.68%	1.48%	2.24%	2.20%	2.03%	3.86%	2.92%	2.61%	4.07%	4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,263.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,723.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,540.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,852.60	1,157.88	694.73
Cash Retained (M)	6,540.00	6,540.00	6,540.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,852.60	-1,157.88	-694.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,687.40	5,382.13	5,845.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	476.53	476.53	476.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.84	11.29	12.27
LTM Dividend per Share	5.71	5.71	5.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.84	11.29	12.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.55	17.01	17.98
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Fair Value	$240.10	$312.25	$405.22
Upside / Downside	-49.68%	-34.56%	-15.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,263.00	9,579.28	9,906.36	10,244.60	10,594.40	10,956.14	11,284.82
Payout Ratio	29.40%	41.52%	53.64%	65.76%	77.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,723.00	3,977.05	5,313.56	6,736.71	8,250.84	9,860.52	10,438.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,611.81	3,647.08	3,682.34
Year 2 PV (M)	4,382.41	4,468.41	4,555.25
Year 3 PV (M)	5,045.91	5,195.16	5,347.33
Year 4 PV (M)	5,612.46	5,834.90	6,063.88
Year 5 PV (M)	6,091.42	6,394.68	6,709.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	106,627.76	111,936.11	117,453.81
Equity Value (M)	131,371.77	137,476.35	143,812.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	476.53	476.53	476.53
Fair Value	$275.69	$288.50	$301.79
Upside / Downside	-42.22%	-39.54%	-36.75%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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