DDM Analysis: BWXT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$67.98 - $156.07	$99.21
Multi-Stage	$57.17 - $62.52	$59.80
Blended Fair Value	$79.50
Current Price	$184.37
Upside	-56.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.21%	7.35%	0.96	0.93	0.88	0.87	0.79	0.71	0.70	0.46	0.41	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	3.97%	4.81%	1.76%	9.22%	11.57%	2.43%	51.80%	12.50%	8.38%	-20.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.98%	0.91%	1.40%	1.61%	1.20%	1.46%	1.37%	0.72%	0.86%	1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	307.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	91.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	215.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	61.41	38.38	23.03
Cash Retained (M)	215.31	215.31	215.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-61.41	-38.38	-23.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	153.90	176.93	192.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	91.81	91.81	91.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.68	1.93	2.09
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.68	1.93	2.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.68	2.93	3.09
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Fair Value	$67.98	$99.21	$156.07
Upside / Downside	-63.13%	-46.19%	-15.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	307.04	323.69	341.25	359.76	379.27	399.85	411.84
Payout Ratio	29.87%	41.90%	53.92%	65.95%	77.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	91.73	135.63	184.02	237.26	295.74	359.86	380.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.53%	8.53%	8.53%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	123.78	124.96	126.15
Year 2 PV (M)	153.27	156.22	159.20
Year 3 PV (M)	180.35	185.58	190.91
Year 4 PV (M)	205.16	213.13	221.34
Year 5 PV (M)	227.83	238.95	250.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,358.70	4,571.44	4,792.40
Equity Value (M)	5,249.10	5,490.29	5,740.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	91.81	91.81	91.81
Fair Value	$57.17	$59.80	$62.52
Upside / Downside	-68.99%	-67.57%	-66.09%

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BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener