Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Bankwell Financial Group, Inc. (BWFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$230.64 - $742.02$695.38
Multi-Stage$97.42 - $106.66$101.95
Blended Fair Value$398.67
Current Price$44.25
Upside800.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.02%0.00%0.810.800.800.650.560.520.480.280.210.05
YoY Growth--0.67%0.84%23.16%14.49%7.60%8.51%74.92%29.38%341.76%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.18%3.20%1.91%2.09%3.44%1.66%0.86%0.62%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.803.632.18
Cash Retained (M)22.7522.7522.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.80-3.63-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9519.1220.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.462.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.983.263.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$230.64$695.38$742.02
Upside / Downside421.23%1,471.47%1,576.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.0230.9032.9135.0537.3339.7640.95
Payout Ratio21.59%35.28%48.96%62.64%76.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.2710.9016.1121.9628.4935.7837.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1110.2010.30
Year 2 PV (M)13.8514.1114.37
Year 3 PV (M)17.4917.9918.50
Year 4 PV (M)21.0421.8422.68
Year 5 PV (M)24.4925.6726.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)670.69703.09736.72
Equity Value (M)757.66792.90829.47
Shares Outstanding (M)7.787.787.78
Fair Value$97.42$101.95$106.66
Upside / Downside120.16%130.40%141.03%

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