DDM Analysis: BSRR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$200.90 - $568.70	$532.95
Multi-Stage	$78.90 - $86.35	$82.56
Blended Fair Value	$307.76
Current Price	$28.91
Upside	964.53%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.77%	11.06%	0.98	0.99	1.00	0.95	0.88	0.81	0.70	0.57	0.47	0.41
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.58%	-1.47%	5.19%	8.40%	7.72%	16.14%	22.96%	21.96%	14.91%	18.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.51%	5.09%	5.81%	3.81%	3.27%	4.63%	2.84%	2.14%	1.70%	2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	39.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.96	4.97	2.98
Cash Retained (M)	26.00	26.00	26.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.96	-4.97	-2.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.04	21.02	23.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13.92	13.92	13.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.30	1.51	1.65
LTM Dividend per Share	0.99	0.99	0.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.30	1.51	1.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.29	2.50	2.65
WACC / Discount Rate	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$200.90	$532.95	$568.70
Upside / Downside	594.91%	1,743.50%	1,867.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	39.80	42.38	45.14	48.07	51.20	54.53	56.16
Payout Ratio	34.68%	45.74%	56.81%	67.87%	78.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.80	19.39	25.64	32.63	40.41	49.07	51.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	18.00	18.17	18.34
Year 2 PV (M)	22.10	22.52	22.95
Year 3 PV (M)	26.11	26.86	27.62
Year 4 PV (M)	30.02	31.18	32.37
Year 5 PV (M)	33.85	35.48	37.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	968.02	1,014.77	1,063.32
Equity Value (M)	1,098.09	1,148.98	1,201.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	13.92	13.92	13.92
Fair Value	$78.90	$82.56	$86.35
Upside / Downside	172.93%	185.57%	198.69%

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Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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