Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$247.77 - $1,209.83$529.09
Multi-Stage$336.27 - $369.35$352.50
Blended Fair Value$440.79
Current Price$77.03
Upside472.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.32%4.66%4.314.174.354.113.693.663.563.353.052.89
YoY Growth--3.29%-4.13%5.94%11.16%0.99%2.63%6.47%9.88%5.53%5.64%
Dividend Yield--5.59%5.61%6.93%5.70%4.04%5.34%4.93%4.48%3.72%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,789.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,638.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,151.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,557.80973.63584.18
Cash Retained (M)2,151.002,151.002,151.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,557.80-973.63-584.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)593.201,177.381,566.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.501,246.501,246.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.941.26
LTM Dividend per Share4.524.524.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.941.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.005.475.78
WACC / Discount Rate4.73%4.73%4.73%
Growth Rate2.66%3.66%4.66%
Fair Value$247.77$529.09$1,209.83
Upside / Downside221.65%586.86%1,470.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,789.008,073.788,368.978,674.968,992.139,320.909,600.52
Payout Ratio72.38%75.91%79.43%82.95%86.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,638.006,128.596,647.517,196.197,776.118,388.818,880.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.73%4.73%4.73%
Growth Rate2.66%3.66%4.66%
Year 1 PV (M)5,795.495,851.955,908.40
Year 2 PV (M)5,944.556,060.936,178.43
Year 3 PV (M)6,085.446,265.026,448.09
Year 4 PV (M)6,218.446,464.306,717.39
Year 5 PV (M)6,343.796,658.856,986.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)388,778.27408,086.74428,154.86
Equity Value (M)419,165.98439,387.79460,393.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.501,246.501,246.50
Fair Value$336.27$352.50$369.35
Upside / Downside336.55%357.61%379.49%

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