Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.77 - $772.62$479.42
Multi-Stage$147.19 - $161.40$154.16
Blended Fair Value$316.79
Current Price$56.10
Upside464.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.90%10.10%2.532.332.172.011.881.731.481.341.211.01
YoY Growth--8.45%7.28%8.07%7.06%8.66%16.94%10.18%10.48%20.61%4.26%
Dividend Yield--4.16%4.33%3.44%2.61%2.81%2.70%2.02%2.47%1.83%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9635.6021.36
Cash Retained (M)140.70140.70140.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.96-35.60-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.74105.10119.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.453.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Fair Value$186.77$479.42$772.62
Upside / Downside232.93%754.58%1,277.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.80298.58313.03328.17344.05360.70371.52
Payout Ratio50.60%58.48%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.10174.60207.72243.63282.53324.63343.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Year 1 PV (M)163.78165.35166.93
Year 2 PV (M)182.76186.29189.87
Year 3 PV (M)201.06206.93212.91
Year 4 PV (M)218.71227.26236.05
Year 5 PV (M)235.72247.29259.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,621.3210,093.6110,584.27
Equity Value (M)10,623.3411,126.7311,649.33
Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
Fair Value$147.19$154.16$161.40
Upside / Downside162.37%174.80%187.71%

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