DDM Analysis: BFST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$74.71 - $243.43	$121.16
Multi-Stage	$48.31 - $52.81	$50.52
Blended Fair Value	$85.84
Current Price	$23.61
Upside	263.58%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.08%	0.00%	0.50	0.43	0.37	0.32	0.25	0.17	0.11	0.06	0.04	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	17.45%	16.92%	14.71%	25.48%	48.79%	54.04%	83.09%	69.70%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.06%	1.97%	2.14%	1.31%	1.06%	1.27%	0.45%	0.24%	0.14%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	81.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)	65.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.40	10.25	6.15
Cash Retained (M)	65.42	65.42	65.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.40	-10.25	-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49.02	55.17	59.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	29.57	29.57	29.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.66	1.87	2.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.56	0.56	0.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.66	1.87	2.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.22	2.43	2.57
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$74.71	$121.16	$243.43
Upside / Downside	216.43%	413.18%	931.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	81.99	87.32	93.00	99.04	105.48	112.33	115.70
Payout Ratio	20.21%	34.17%	48.13%	62.08%	76.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16.57	29.84	44.76	61.49	80.21	101.10	107.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.63%	8.63%	8.63%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.21	27.46	27.72
Year 2 PV (M)	37.22	37.92	38.64
Year 3 PV (M)	46.62	47.96	49.33
Year 4 PV (M)	55.46	57.59	59.79
Year 5 PV (M)	63.75	66.83	70.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,198.06	1,255.93	1,316.01
Equity Value (M)	1,428.32	1,493.70	1,561.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	29.57	29.57	29.57
Fair Value	$48.31	$50.52	$52.81
Upside / Downside	104.60%	113.97%	123.68%

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Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener