Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Civitas Resources, Inc. (BCEI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.73 - $590.13$295.65
Multi-Stage$128.45 - $139.87$134.06
Blended Fair Value$214.85
Current Price$56.10
Upside282.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.287.055.740.650.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.21%22.98%783.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.40%12.57%10.22%1.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)627.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)10.1710.1710.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-117.46-69.60-37.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
LTM Dividend per Share6.716.716.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.455.966.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$182.73$295.65$590.13
Upside / Downside225.72%427.00%951.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.91874.27900.49
Payout Ratio98.41%96.73%95.04%93.36%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)627.94657.33687.89719.64752.62786.84832.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)599.33605.01610.69
Year 2 PV (M)571.84582.74593.73
Year 3 PV (M)545.45561.11577.06
Year 4 PV (M)520.10540.10560.68
Year 5 PV (M)495.77519.71544.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,291.179,739.9410,205.88
Equity Value (M)12,023.6612,548.6113,092.62
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
Fair Value$128.45$134.06$139.87
Upside / Downside128.96%138.96%149.32%

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