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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30,753.20 - $111,321.37$97,279.49
Multi-Stage$14,452.52 - $15,792.36$15,110.25
Blended Fair Value$56,194.87
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside1,263.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.74%14.43%280.46196.5073.0922.00103.18100.70127.85106.4660.8172.31
YoY Growth--42.73%168.84%232.23%-78.68%2.46%-21.23%20.09%75.07%-15.91%-0.76%
Dividend Yield--6.61%3.48%1.56%0.53%3.60%5.27%2.72%2.45%1.88%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,866,036.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,951,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,173,207.202,608,254.501,564,952.70
Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.006,914,697.006,914,697.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,173,207.20-2,608,254.50-1,564,952.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,741,489.804,306,442.505,349,744.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
LTM Dividend per Share374.26374.26374.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend447.80489.79517.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30,753.20$97,279.49$111,321.37
Upside / Downside646.44%2,261.15%2,601.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,866,036.0022,222,328.3423,666,779.6825,205,120.3626,843,453.1828,588,277.6429,445,925.97
Payout Ratio66.86%71.49%76.12%80.74%85.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,951,339.0015,886,559.9318,014,415.1720,351,770.8822,916,871.9325,729,449.8827,237,481.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,702,865.8614,842,229.5214,981,593.18
Year 2 PV (M)15,429,946.7415,723,843.8916,020,513.65
Year 3 PV (M)16,133,128.5316,596,252.6817,068,156.16
Year 4 PV (M)16,812,947.4917,459,526.0018,124,576.81
Year 5 PV (M)17,469,929.3718,313,733.4919,189,831.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)458,198,712.50480,329,881.65503,308,062.72
Equity Value (M)538,747,530.50563,265,467.22588,692,734.51
Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
Fair Value$14,452.52$15,110.25$15,792.36
Upside / Downside250.79%266.75%283.31%

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