Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ayvens (AYV.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.39 - $19.50$15.65
Multi-Stage$31.40 - $34.55$32.94
Blended Fair Value$24.30
Current Price$9.45
Upside157.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.38%0.00%0.460.710.520.300.300.280.270.190.180.00
YoY Growth---35.96%37.59%71.41%0.00%8.50%5.26%42.87%4.08%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.98%10.77%4.82%2.56%2.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,056.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)759.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)297.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)211.28132.0579.23
Cash Retained (M)297.20297.20297.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-211.28-132.05-79.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.92165.15217.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)838.34838.34838.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.200.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.200.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.39$15.65$19.50
Upside / Downside31.07%65.58%106.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,056.401,045.841,035.381,025.021,014.771,004.631,034.76
Payout Ratio71.87%75.49%79.12%82.75%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)759.20789.54819.19848.17876.49904.16957.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.98%5.98%5.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)737.49745.01752.54
Year 2 PV (M)714.74729.40744.21
Year 3 PV (M)691.25712.62734.44
Year 4 PV (M)667.24694.89723.39
Year 5 PV (M)642.92676.40711.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,868.3224,059.1325,299.03
Equity Value (M)26,321.9627,617.4628,964.88
Shares Outstanding (M)838.34838.34838.34
Fair Value$31.40$32.94$34.55
Upside / Downside232.25%248.60%265.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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