Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allianz Ayudhya Capital Public Company Limited (AYUD.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.89 - $1,221.74$593.36
Multi-Stage$139.56 - $152.60$145.96
Blended Fair Value$369.66
Current Price$35.00
Upside956.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.22%6.66%2.571.165.911.541.490.740.571.121.281.61
YoY Growth--121.55%-80.37%283.77%3.24%101.15%30.96%-49.62%-12.50%-20.00%19.05%
Dividend Yield--8.03%3.16%14.59%3.46%4.52%2.51%1.17%2.40%3.92%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,391.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)912.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,478.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)478.27298.92179.35
Cash Retained (M)1,478.851,478.851,478.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-478.27-298.92-179.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,000.581,179.931,299.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.342.342.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.915.385.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$263.89$593.36$1,221.74
Upside / Downside653.97%1,595.31%3,390.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,391.362,546.802,712.342,888.653,076.413,276.383,374.67
Payout Ratio38.16%48.53%58.90%69.26%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)912.521,235.891,597.442,000.782,449.802,948.743,121.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,139.241,150.041,160.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,357.371,383.221,409.32
Year 3 PV (M)1,567.141,612.131,657.97
Year 4 PV (M)1,768.791,836.811,906.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,962.542,057.332,155.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,532.1648,779.6851,113.21
Equity Value (M)54,327.2556,819.2259,403.88
Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
Fair Value$139.56$145.96$152.60
Upside / Downside298.75%317.04%336.01%

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