DDM Analysis: AYGAZ.IS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,669.67 - $3,145.32	$2,947.63
Multi-Stage	$579.54 - $633.69	$606.12
Blended Fair Value	$1,776.87
Current Price	$182.40
Upside	874.16%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	36.60%	26.46%	8.33	1.43	0.68	0.68	0.68	1.75	2.09	2.05	1.43	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	482.00%	109.75%	0.00%	0.00%	-61.03%	-16.35%	2.22%	42.86%	214.73%	-42.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.41%	0.92%	1.02%	2.56%	4.61%	20.84%	21.49%	14.15%	9.75%	3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,476.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,250.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	225.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	695.26	434.53	260.72
Cash Retained (M)	225.74	225.74	225.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-695.26	-434.53	-260.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-469.52	-208.80	-34.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	219.80	219.80	219.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-2.14	-0.95	-0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	14.79	14.79	14.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-2.14	-0.95	-0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	12.65	13.84	14.63
WACC / Discount Rate	5.91%	5.91%	5.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$2,669.67	$2,947.63	$3,145.32
Upside / Downside	1,363.63%	1,516.02%	1,624.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,476.28	3,702.24	3,942.88	4,199.17	4,472.11	4,762.80	4,905.68
Payout Ratio	93.51%	92.81%	92.10%	91.40%	90.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,250.54	3,435.86	3,631.54	3,838.15	4,056.26	4,286.52	4,537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.91%	5.91%	5.91%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,213.71	3,244.17	3,274.63
Year 2 PV (M)	3,177.11	3,237.62	3,298.71
Year 3 PV (M)	3,140.75	3,230.91	3,322.77
Year 4 PV (M)	3,104.62	3,224.01	3,346.82
Year 5 PV (M)	3,068.72	3,216.94	3,370.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)	111,677.71	117,071.78	122,672.30
Equity Value (M)	127,382.60	133,225.43	139,286.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	219.80	219.80	219.80
Fair Value	$579.54	$606.12	$633.69
Upside / Downside	217.73%	232.30%	247.42%

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Aygaz A.S. (AYGAZ.IS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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