DDM Analysis: AXFO.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,601.04 - $1,951.06	$1,828.43
Multi-Stage	$345.58 - $377.87	$361.43
Blended Fair Value	$1,094.93
Current Price	$292.10
Upside	274.85%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.57%	8.73%	8.46	8.11	7.59	7.24	7.00	6.77	6.85	5.81	8.71	4.15
YoY Growth	-	-	4.26%	6.87%	4.91%	3.43%	3.41%	-1.21%	17.95%	-33.35%	110.12%	13.22%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.75%	2.60%	3.00%	2.38%	3.38%	3.37%	4.01%	4.10%	6.53%	2.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,127.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,889.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	238.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	425.40	265.88	159.53
Cash Retained (M)	238.00	238.00	238.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-425.40	-265.88	-159.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-187.40	-27.88	78.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	216.81	216.81	216.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.86	-0.13	0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	8.71	8.71	8.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.86	-0.13	0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.85	8.58	9.07
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,601.04	$1,828.43	$1,951.06
Upside / Downside	448.11%	525.96%	567.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,127.00	2,265.26	2,412.50	2,569.31	2,736.31	2,914.17	3,001.60
Payout Ratio	88.81%	89.05%	89.29%	89.52%	89.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,889.00	2,017.17	2,154.03	2,300.15	2,456.17	2,622.76	2,776.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.02%	6.02%	6.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,884.82	1,902.69	1,920.55
Year 2 PV (M)	1,880.64	1,916.46	1,952.62
Year 3 PV (M)	1,876.45	1,930.32	1,985.20
Year 4 PV (M)	1,872.26	1,944.26	2,018.32
Year 5 PV (M)	1,868.06	1,958.29	2,051.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)	65,543.30	68,709.06	71,995.99
Equity Value (M)	74,925.52	78,361.07	81,924.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	216.81	216.81	216.81
Fair Value	$345.58	$361.43	$377.87
Upside / Downside	18.31%	23.74%	29.36%

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Financial Statements

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Axfood AB (publ) (AXFO.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener