DDM Analysis: AWI

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$120.19 - $240.33	$167.01
Multi-Stage	$97.09 - $106.12	$101.52
Blended Fair Value	$134.27
Current Price	$196.01
Upside	-31.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.29%	44.22%	1.16	1.07	1.01	0.95	0.90	0.81	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	7.89%	6.11%	6.76%	5.61%	10.11%	313.95%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-7.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.82%	0.87%	1.42%	1.05%	0.99%	1.02%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	305.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	54.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	251.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	61.08	38.18	22.91
Cash Retained (M)	251.30	251.30	251.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-61.08	-38.18	-22.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	190.22	213.13	228.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	43.78	43.78	43.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.35	4.87	5.22
LTM Dividend per Share	1.24	1.24	1.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.35	4.87	5.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.58	6.10	6.45
WACC / Discount Rate	9.72%	9.72%	9.72%
Growth Rate	4.85%	5.85%	6.85%
Fair Value	$120.19	$167.01	$240.33
Upside / Downside	-38.68%	-14.80%	22.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	305.40	323.26	342.17	362.18	383.36	405.78	417.95
Payout Ratio	17.71%	32.17%	46.63%	61.09%	75.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	54.10	104.00	159.55	221.24	289.60	365.20	386.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.72%	9.72%	9.72%
Growth Rate	4.85%	5.85%	6.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	93.89	94.79	95.68
Year 2 PV (M)	130.05	132.54	135.05
Year 3 PV (M)	162.80	167.51	172.30
Year 4 PV (M)	192.40	199.85	207.51
Year 5 PV (M)	219.05	229.70	240.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,452.06	3,619.85	3,794.11
Equity Value (M)	4,250.25	4,444.23	4,645.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	43.78	43.78	43.78
Fair Value	$97.09	$101.52	$106.12
Upside / Downside	-50.47%	-48.20%	-45.86%

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Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener