Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Asefa Public Company Limited (ASEFA.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.32 - $3.24$2.78
Multi-Stage$4.66 - $5.13$4.89
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$3.46
Upside10.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.12%-2.52%0.190.190.230.290.210.340.330.330.210.19
YoY Growth--3.29%-18.79%-21.43%38.89%-39.39%3.13%0.00%60.00%10.00%-23.08%
Dividend Yield--6.60%4.73%6.20%6.54%4.18%12.97%5.97%5.72%2.56%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.6925.4315.26
Cash Retained (M)129.66129.66129.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.69-25.43-15.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.97104.23114.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.26526.26526.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-4.52%-3.52%-2.52%
Fair Value$2.32$2.78$3.24
Upside / Downside-33.02%-19.67%-6.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.44196.27189.36182.69176.25170.04175.14
Payout Ratio36.27%47.01%57.76%68.51%79.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.7892.27109.37125.15139.69153.04162.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate-4.52%-3.52%-2.52%
Year 1 PV (M)84.3885.2786.15
Year 2 PV (M)91.4693.3995.34
Year 3 PV (M)95.7198.75101.85
Year 4 PV (M)97.69101.84106.13
Year 5 PV (M)97.87103.11108.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,985.232,091.402,202.05
Equity Value (M)2,452.352,573.752,700.09
Shares Outstanding (M)526.26526.26526.26
Fair Value$4.66$4.89$5.13
Upside / Downside34.68%41.35%48.29%

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