Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Arezzo Indústria e Comércio S.A. (ARZZ3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$653.98 - $770.50$722.07
Multi-Stage$439.68 - $482.34$460.61
Blended Fair Value$591.34
Current Price$51.09
Upside1,057.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS32.05%24.28%2.621.590.281.511.270.651.250.260.400.28
YoY Growth--64.90%458.51%-81.19%19.14%94.49%-47.96%373.31%-33.18%40.26%-5.17%
Dividend Yield--4.20%2.53%0.33%2.25%3.64%1.38%2.77%0.99%2.07%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)438.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)296.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)141.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.6354.7732.86
Cash Retained (M)141.85141.85141.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.63-54.77-32.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.2287.08108.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.09113.09113.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.770.96
LTM Dividend per Share2.622.622.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.770.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.103.393.58
WACC / Discount Rate2.68%2.68%2.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$653.98$722.07$770.50
Upside / Downside1,180.05%1,313.33%1,408.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)438.15466.63496.96529.26563.67600.30618.31
Payout Ratio67.63%72.10%76.58%81.05%85.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)296.30336.44380.55428.97482.08540.27571.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.68%2.68%2.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)324.57327.65330.73
Year 2 PV (M)354.17360.92367.73
Year 3 PV (M)385.15396.20407.47
Year 4 PV (M)417.56433.62450.13
Year 5 PV (M)451.46473.26495.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,791.5350,099.8852,496.57
Equity Value (M)49,724.4352,091.5254,548.53
Shares Outstanding (M)113.09113.09113.09
Fair Value$439.68$460.61$482.34
Upside / Downside760.60%801.57%844.09%

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