DDM Analysis: ARROW.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.55 - $3.47	$3.02
Multi-Stage	$4.29 - $4.69	$4.49
Blended Fair Value	$3.75
Current Price	$5.10
Upside	-26.39%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.66%	1.18%	0.35	0.35	0.45	0.45	0.55	0.49	0.49	0.59	0.59	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-22.22%	0.60%	-18.04%	10.50%	0.01%	-16.34%	0.51%	129.77%	-17.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.73%	5.34%	6.29%	5.42%	6.42%	8.37%	5.78%	4.84%	3.39%	1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	129.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	89.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.91	16.19	9.71
Cash Retained (M)	39.62	39.62	39.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.91	-16.19	-9.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.71	23.42	29.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	256.90	256.90	256.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.09	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.09	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.44	0.47
WACC / Discount Rate	10.80%	10.80%	10.80%
Growth Rate	-4.32%	-3.32%	-2.32%
Fair Value	$2.55	$3.02	$3.47
Upside / Downside	-49.97%	-40.80%	-31.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	129.53	125.22	121.06	117.03	113.14	109.38	112.66
Payout Ratio	69.42%	73.53%	77.65%	81.77%	85.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	89.91	92.08	94.00	95.69	97.17	98.44	104.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.80%	10.80%	10.80%
Growth Rate	-4.32%	-3.32%	-2.32%
Year 1 PV (M)	82.24	83.10	83.96
Year 2 PV (M)	74.99	76.57	78.16
Year 3 PV (M)	68.19	70.35	72.55
Year 4 PV (M)	61.84	64.47	67.18
Year 5 PV (M)	55.96	58.95	62.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	759.36	799.88	842.12
Equity Value (M)	1,102.59	1,153.32	1,206.03
Shares Outstanding (M)	256.90	256.90	256.90
Fair Value	$4.29	$4.49	$4.69
Upside / Downside	-15.84%	-11.97%	-7.95%

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Arrow Syndicate Public Company Limited (ARROW.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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