DDM Analysis: AROW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.59 - $48.27	$36.41
Multi-Stage	$35.57 - $38.93	$37.22
Blended Fair Value	$36.81
Current Price	$28.30
Upside	30.09%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.76%	3.95%	1.10	1.08	1.05	0.98	0.95	0.92	0.87	0.82	0.79	0.77
YoY Growth	-	-	1.68%	3.09%	7.04%	3.53%	3.51%	5.68%	5.81%	3.87%	3.09%	2.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.19%	4.43%	4.35%	3.21%	3.11%	3.70%	2.99%	2.88%	2.86%	3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	34.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6.88	4.30	2.58
Cash Retained (M)	15.60	15.60	15.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6.88	-4.30	-2.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8.72	11.30	13.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	16.59	16.59	16.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.68	0.78
LTM Dividend per Share	1.13	1.13	1.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.68	0.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.66	1.81	1.92
WACC / Discount Rate	8.09%	8.09%	8.09%
Growth Rate	1.95%	2.95%	3.95%
Fair Value	$27.59	$36.41	$48.27
Upside / Downside	-2.51%	28.66%	70.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	34.41	35.43	36.47	37.55	38.66	39.80	41.00
Payout Ratio	54.67%	61.74%	68.80%	75.87%	82.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.81	21.87	25.09	28.49	32.06	35.82	37.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.09%	8.09%	8.09%
Growth Rate	1.95%	2.95%	3.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	20.04	20.23	20.43
Year 2 PV (M)	21.07	21.48	21.90
Year 3 PV (M)	21.91	22.56	23.23
Year 4 PV (M)	22.59	23.49	24.42
Year 5 PV (M)	23.13	24.28	25.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	481.39	505.47	530.49
Equity Value (M)	590.12	617.52	645.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	16.59	16.59	16.59
Fair Value	$35.57	$37.22	$38.93
Upside / Downside	25.68%	31.51%	37.57%

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Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener