Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ARB Corporation Limited (ARB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.31 - $112.14$71.73
Multi-Stage$35.87 - $39.15$37.48
Blended Fair Value$54.61
Current Price$32.70
Upside66.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.39%0.73%0.290.540.550.610.000.180.290.310.320.29
YoY Growth---47.35%-1.25%-9.98%0.00%-100.00%-36.78%-6.44%-2.72%8.22%10.30%
Dividend Yield--0.87%1.46%1.92%2.16%0.00%1.01%1.56%1.35%2.01%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.0425.0315.02
Cash Retained (M)131.95131.95131.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.04-25.03-15.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.90106.92116.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.5682.5682.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.111.301.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.111.301.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.31$71.73$112.14
Upside / Downside50.81%119.36%242.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.21213.22227.08241.84257.56274.31282.53
Payout Ratio34.10%45.28%56.46%67.64%78.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.2696.54128.21163.58203.01246.87261.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)87.2288.0488.87
Year 2 PV (M)104.64106.63108.64
Year 3 PV (M)120.62124.08127.61
Year 4 PV (M)135.23140.43145.78
Year 5 PV (M)148.57155.75163.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,364.932,479.152,597.75
Equity Value (M)2,961.203,094.093,231.86
Shares Outstanding (M)82.5682.5682.56
Fair Value$35.87$37.48$39.15
Upside / Downside9.69%14.61%19.72%

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