DDM Analysis: APA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$26.59 - $37.54	$32.01
Multi-Stage	$41.00 - $45.02	$42.97
Blended Fair Value	$37.49
Current Price	$24.28
Upside	54.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.25%	-0.33%	0.97	0.85	0.57	0.14	0.34	1.03	1.05	1.04	1.04	1.04
YoY Growth	-	-	14.61%	48.79%	298.08%	-57.72%	-67.29%	-1.57%	0.53%	0.26%	0.53%	3.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.61%	2.39%	1.58%	0.35%	1.89%	24.71%	3.00%	2.71%	2.03%	2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,509.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	364.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,145.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	301.80	188.63	113.18
Cash Retained (M)	1,145.00	1,145.00	1,145.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-301.80	-188.63	-113.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	843.20	956.38	1,031.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	364.00	364.00	364.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.32	2.63	2.83
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.32	2.63	2.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.32	3.63	3.83
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	-2.33%	-1.33%	-0.33%
Fair Value	$26.59	$32.01	$37.54
Upside / Downside	9.52%	31.84%	54.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,509.00	1,488.87	1,469.02	1,449.42	1,430.09	1,411.02	1,453.35
Payout Ratio	24.12%	37.30%	50.47%	63.65%	76.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	364.00	555.31	741.46	922.54	1,098.66	1,269.92	1,344.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.85%	9.85%	9.85%
Growth Rate	-2.33%	-1.33%	-0.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	500.41	505.53	510.66
Year 2 PV (M)	602.09	614.49	627.01
Year 3 PV (M)	675.07	696.02	717.40
Year 4 PV (M)	724.47	754.60	785.66
Year 5 PV (M)	754.60	794.04	835.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,667.41	12,277.08	12,911.97
Equity Value (M)	14,924.07	15,641.76	16,387.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	364.00	364.00	364.00
Fair Value	$41.00	$42.97	$45.02
Upside / Downside	68.86%	76.98%	85.43%

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APA Corporation (APA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener