Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anadolu Hayat Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi (ANHYT.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$368.61 - $1,437.61$625.13
Multi-Stage$236.38 - $258.11$247.05
Blended Fair Value$436.09
Current Price$90.35
Upside382.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.07%34.88%2.411.211.050.860.670.320.410.340.240.14
YoY Growth--99.94%15.28%22.03%28.14%111.16%-22.34%21.34%39.70%66.34%19.60%
Dividend Yield--2.67%2.81%6.56%6.67%7.13%5.97%7.45%4.51%4.76%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,381.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,579.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,802.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,076.33672.71403.63
Cash Retained (M)2,802.642,802.642,802.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,076.33-672.71-403.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,726.312,129.932,399.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)430.00430.00430.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.014.955.58
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.014.955.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0110.9511.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$368.61$625.13$1,437.61
Upside / Downside307.98%591.90%1,491.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,381.675,731.486,104.036,500.796,923.347,373.367,594.56
Payout Ratio47.92%56.34%64.75%73.17%81.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,579.033,229.003,952.574,756.565,648.376,636.027,024.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,951.752,979.733,007.71
Year 2 PV (M)3,302.953,365.863,429.37
Year 3 PV (M)3,633.513,737.823,844.10
Year 4 PV (M)3,944.284,095.974,251.99
Year 5 PV (M)4,236.074,440.684,653.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,574.7187,611.4091,802.59
Equity Value (M)101,643.28106,231.45110,988.86
Shares Outstanding (M)430.00430.00430.00
Fair Value$236.38$247.05$258.11
Upside / Downside161.63%173.44%185.68%

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