Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Alm. Brand A/S (ALMB.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.10 - $34.58$22.95
Multi-Stage$12.51 - $13.62$13.05
Blended Fair Value$18.00
Current Price$17.74
Upside1.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.17%0.00%0.580.320.321.570.000.250.330.550.340.06
YoY Growth--83.55%0.00%-79.98%0.00%-100.00%-23.33%-40.96%62.60%488.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.50%2.42%2.46%13.62%0.00%2.07%2.29%3.65%2.47%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,238.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)864.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)374.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)247.60154.7592.85
Cash Retained (M)374.00374.00374.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-247.60-154.75-92.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.40219.25281.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.501,465.501,465.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.10$22.95$34.58
Upside / Downside-9.26%29.39%94.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,238.001,318.471,404.171,495.441,592.651,696.171,747.05
Payout Ratio69.79%73.83%77.87%81.92%85.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)864.00973.451,093.481,225.011,369.011,526.551,616.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)877.21885.52893.84
Year 2 PV (M)887.95904.87921.94
Year 3 PV (M)896.41922.14948.36
Year 4 PV (M)902.74937.45973.16
Year 5 PV (M)907.10950.91996.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,857.8014,527.1415,222.09
Equity Value (M)18,329.2119,128.0319,955.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,465.501,465.501,465.50
Fair Value$12.51$13.05$13.62
Upside / Downside-29.50%-26.42%-23.24%

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