DDM Analysis: ALICA.PA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.60 - $11.51	$9.44
Multi-Stage	$15.66 - $17.23	$16.43
Blended Fair Value	$12.93
Current Price	$7.38
Upside	75.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.25%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.98%	1.53%	0.00%	0.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.42	0.89	0.53
Cash Retained (M)	3.90	3.90	3.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.42	-0.89	-0.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.48	3.01	3.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8.12	8.12	8.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.37	0.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.37	0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.70	0.77	0.81
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$7.60	$9.44	$11.51
Upside / Downside	3.00%	27.94%	55.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7.12	7.05	6.98	6.91	6.84	6.77	6.98
Payout Ratio	45.20%	54.16%	63.12%	72.08%	81.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.22	3.82	4.41	4.98	5.55	6.10	6.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.05%	7.05%	7.05%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	3.53	3.57	3.60
Year 2 PV (M)	3.77	3.85	3.92
Year 3 PV (M)	3.94	4.06	4.19
Year 4 PV (M)	4.05	4.22	4.40
Year 5 PV (M)	4.12	4.34	4.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	107.70	113.31	119.15
Equity Value (M)	127.12	133.34	139.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	8.12	8.12	8.12
Fair Value	$15.66	$16.43	$17.23
Upside / Downside	112.20%	122.59%	133.40%

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Icape Holding S.A. (ALICA.PA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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