DDM Analysis: AEO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.65 - $18.20	$14.67
Multi-Stage	$13.27 - $14.49	$13.87
Blended Fair Value	$14.27
Current Price	$16.71
Upside	-14.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.78%	-0.08%	0.54	0.47	0.36	0.64	0.13	0.52	0.54	0.49	0.51	0.54
YoY Growth	-	-	15.07%	29.43%	-43.16%	398.58%	-75.37%	-4.47%	9.68%	-2.35%	-6.74%	0.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.84%	1.92%	2.70%	4.20%	0.37%	6.67%	2.24%	2.45%	3.59%	3.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	208.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	87.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)	120.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	41.68	26.05	15.63
Cash Retained (M)	120.59	120.59	120.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-41.68	-26.05	-15.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	78.90	94.53	104.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	179.39	179.39	179.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.44	0.53	0.59
LTM Dividend per Share	0.49	0.49	0.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.44	0.53	0.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.02	1.07
WACC / Discount Rate	10.51%	10.51%	10.51%
Growth Rate	2.34%	3.34%	4.34%
Fair Value	$11.65	$14.67	$18.20
Upside / Downside	-30.26%	-12.22%	8.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	208.42	215.39	222.59	230.03	237.73	245.67	253.04
Payout Ratio	42.14%	51.72%	61.29%	70.86%	80.43%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	87.84	111.39	136.42	163.00	191.20	221.11	234.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.51%	10.51%	10.51%
Growth Rate	2.34%	3.34%	4.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	99.83	100.80	101.78
Year 2 PV (M)	109.56	111.71	113.89
Year 3 PV (M)	117.32	120.79	124.33
Year 4 PV (M)	123.33	128.22	133.25
Year 5 PV (M)	127.81	134.17	140.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,802.54	1,892.35	1,985.69
Equity Value (M)	2,380.38	2,488.04	2,599.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	179.39	179.39	179.39
Fair Value	$13.27	$13.87	$14.49
Upside / Downside	-20.59%	-17.00%	-13.27%

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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener