DDM Analysis: AEFES.IS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$127.42 - $643.88	$263.63
Multi-Stage	$69.76 - $76.31	$72.98
Blended Fair Value	$168.30
Current Price	$13.83
Upside	1,116.93%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	46.16%	0.00%	0.92	0.69	0.91	0.68	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.06	0.05	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	33.76%	-24.53%	34.50%	265.85%	34.25%	17.67%	97.42%	20.59%	-41.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.42%	0.44%	1.42%	2.53%	0.88%	0.80%	0.65%	0.22%	0.25%	0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,543.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,677.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7,865.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,108.71	1,317.94	790.77
Cash Retained (M)	7,865.67	7,865.67	7,865.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,108.71	-1,317.94	-790.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,756.97	6,547.73	7,074.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,256.58	3,256.58	3,256.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.77	2.01	2.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.82	0.82	0.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.77	2.01	2.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.59	2.83	2.99
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$127.42	$263.63	$643.88
Upside / Downside	821.36%	1,806.20%	4,555.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,543.54	11,228.87	11,958.75	12,736.06	13,563.91	14,445.56	14,878.93
Payout Ratio	25.40%	38.32%	51.24%	64.16%	77.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,677.87	4,302.74	6,127.53	8,171.37	10,455.01	13,001.01	13,763.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,959.64	3,997.18	4,034.71
Year 2 PV (M)	5,189.29	5,288.13	5,387.91
Year 3 PV (M)	6,368.37	6,551.18	6,737.46
Year 4 PV (M)	7,498.42	7,786.78	8,083.39
Year 5 PV (M)	8,580.91	8,995.37	9,425.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	195,585.45	205,032.30	214,840.71
Equity Value (M)	227,182.08	237,650.95	248,509.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,256.58	3,256.58	3,256.58
Fair Value	$69.76	$72.98	$76.31
Upside / Downside	404.42%	427.66%	451.77%

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Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi (AEFES.IS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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