DDM Analysis: ACA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$25.11 - $37.56	$31.02
Multi-Stage	$46.97 - $51.75	$49.31
Blended Fair Value	$40.17
Current Price	$93.71
Upside	-57.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.41%	0.00%	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-1.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.26%	0.24%	0.32%	0.35%	0.31%	0.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	148.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	138.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	29.72	18.58	11.15
Cash Retained (M)	138.70	138.70	138.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-29.72	-18.58	-11.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	108.98	120.13	127.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	48.98	48.98	48.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.23	2.45	2.60
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.23	2.45	2.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.43	2.65	2.81
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$25.11	$31.02	$37.56
Upside / Downside	-73.20%	-66.89%	-59.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	148.60	147.11	145.64	144.19	142.74	141.32	145.56
Payout Ratio	6.66%	23.33%	40.00%	56.66%	73.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.90	34.32	58.25	81.70	104.68	127.19	134.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.47%	7.47%	7.47%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.61	31.94	32.26
Year 2 PV (M)	49.42	50.43	51.46
Year 3 PV (M)	63.84	65.82	67.83
Year 4 PV (M)	75.34	78.46	81.68
Year 5 PV (M)	84.32	88.71	93.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,995.89	2,099.82	2,208.03
Equity Value (M)	2,300.42	2,415.18	2,534.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	48.98	48.98	48.98
Fair Value	$46.97	$49.31	$51.75
Upside / Downside	-49.88%	-47.38%	-44.77%

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Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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