DDM Analysis: AAON

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.90 - $100.87	$51.32
Multi-Stage	$21.01 - $22.96	$21.97
Blended Fair Value	$36.64
Current Price	$93.44
Upside	-60.78%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.40%	10.45%	0.31	0.32	0.28	0.24	0.24	0.20	0.20	0.16	0.15	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.37%	15.39%	14.89%	0.67%	19.04%	-0.50%	22.43%	7.79%	6.91%	22.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.40%	0.36%	0.43%	0.65%	0.51%	0.62%	0.65%	0.63%	0.65%	0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	100.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	69.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.05	12.53	7.52
Cash Retained (M)	69.30	69.30	69.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.05	-12.53	-7.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	49.25	56.77	61.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	83.21	83.21	83.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.68	0.74
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.68	0.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.96	1.05	1.11
WACC / Discount Rate	8.69%	8.69%	8.69%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$31.90	$51.32	$100.87
Upside / Downside	-65.86%	-45.08%	7.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	100.25	106.77	113.71	121.10	128.97	137.35	141.47
Payout Ratio	30.87%	42.70%	54.52%	66.35%	78.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30.95	45.59	62.00	80.35	100.82	123.62	130.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.69%	8.69%	8.69%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	41.55	41.94	42.34
Year 2 PV (M)	51.50	52.48	53.47
Year 3 PV (M)	60.83	62.58	64.36
Year 4 PV (M)	69.57	72.25	75.00
Year 5 PV (M)	77.75	81.50	85.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,447.07	1,516.97	1,589.54
Equity Value (M)	1,748.28	1,827.72	1,910.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	83.21	83.21	83.21
Fair Value	$21.01	$21.97	$22.96
Upside / Downside	-77.51%	-76.49%	-75.43%

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AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener