DDM Analysis: AALI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8,434.21 - $13,886.11	$10,856.88
Multi-Stage	$12,035.37 - $13,198.26	$12,605.80
Blended Fair Value	$11,731.34
Current Price	$8,175.00
Upside	43.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.14%	-6.55%	248.97	400.96	443.95	254.97	90.99	223.98	433.96	517.95	98.99	386.14
YoY Growth	-	-	-37.91%	-9.68%	74.12%	180.22%	-59.38%	-48.39%	-16.22%	423.23%	-74.36%	-21.20%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.45%	5.79%	5.48%	2.03%	0.91%	4.15%	3.85%	3.84%	0.66%	2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,416,511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	515,764.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	900,747.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	283,302.20	177,063.88	106,238.33
Cash Retained (M)	900,747.00	900,747.00	900,747.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-283,302.20	-177,063.88	-106,238.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	617,444.80	723,683.13	794,508.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,924.69	1,924.69	1,924.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	320.80	376.00	412.80
LTM Dividend per Share	267.97	267.97	267.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share	320.80	376.00	412.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend	588.78	643.97	680.77
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	0.95%	1.95%	2.95%
Fair Value	$8,434.21	$10,856.88	$13,886.11
Upside / Downside	3.17%	32.81%	69.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,416,511.00	1,444,164.13	1,472,357.11	1,501,100.47	1,530,404.96	1,560,281.53	1,607,089.98
Payout Ratio	36.41%	47.13%	57.85%	68.56%	79.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	515,764.00	680,615.74	851,707.39	1,029,219.76	1,213,338.33	1,404,253.38	1,486,558.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.00%	8.00%	8.00%
Growth Rate	0.95%	1.95%	2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	624,021.51	630,202.87	636,384.22
Year 2 PV (M)	715,954.72	730,209.01	744,603.80
Year 3 PV (M)	793,233.10	817,039.91	841,318.35
Year 4 PV (M)	857,377.73	891,857.47	927,366.87
Year 5 PV (M)	909,773.60	955,734.80	1,003,535.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	19,263,979.54	20,237,183.91	21,249,329.33
Equity Value (M)	23,164,340.21	24,262,227.96	25,402,537.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,924.69	1,924.69	1,924.69
Fair Value	$12,035.37	$12,605.80	$13,198.26
Upside / Downside	47.22%	54.20%	61.45%

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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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