Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd. (9908.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.87 - $81.06$56.62
Multi-Stage$63.66 - $69.91$66.73
Blended Fair Value$61.68
Current Price$7.11
Upside767.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS3.39%0.00%0.600.400.150.370.000.510.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%166.66%-59.46%0.00%-100.00%600.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.40%5.74%2.00%3.79%0.00%5.15%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)202.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.5242.8325.70
Cash Retained (M)202.35202.35202.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.52-42.83-25.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)133.83159.53176.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.161.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Fair Value$40.87$56.62$81.06
Upside / Downside474.86%696.41%1,040.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.61350.81359.20367.79376.59385.60397.17
Payout Ratio40.94%50.75%60.56%70.38%80.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.26178.04217.54258.83301.98347.04367.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate1.39%2.39%3.39%
Year 1 PV (M)165.81167.44169.08
Year 2 PV (M)188.69192.43196.21
Year 3 PV (M)209.09215.34221.71
Year 4 PV (M)227.19236.28245.65
Year 5 PV (M)243.16255.39268.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,741.598,130.968,535.84
Equity Value (M)8,775.529,197.849,636.59
Shares Outstanding (M)137.84137.84137.84
Fair Value$63.66$66.73$69.91
Upside / Downside795.39%838.48%883.25%

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