Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Twareat Medical Care Co. (9627.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.82 - $11.79$9.69
Multi-Stage$16.19 - $17.78$16.97
Blended Fair Value$13.33
Current Price$18.80
Upside-29.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.200.210.080.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.63%157.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.344.582.75
Cash Retained (M)10.4110.4110.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.34-4.58-2.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.075.827.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.0040.0040.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.82$9.69$11.79
Upside / Downside-58.42%-48.45%-37.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.6836.3135.9535.5935.2334.8835.93
Payout Ratio71.63%75.30%78.98%82.65%86.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.2727.3428.3929.4130.4231.3933.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.20%7.20%7.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)25.2525.5125.77
Year 2 PV (M)24.2124.7125.21
Year 3 PV (M)23.1623.8824.61
Year 4 PV (M)22.1223.0323.98
Year 5 PV (M)21.0822.1823.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)531.93559.63588.47
Equity Value (M)647.75678.94711.36
Shares Outstanding (M)40.0040.0040.00
Fair Value$16.19$16.97$17.78
Upside / Downside-13.86%-9.72%-5.40%

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