DDM Analysis: 9525.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.72 - $4.49	$3.51
Multi-Stage	$3.21 - $3.50	$3.35
Blended Fair Value	$3.43
Current Price	$3.77
Upside	-9.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	26.80%	0.00%	0.15	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.98%	0.00%	2.76%	0.00%	0.00%	1.84%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	58.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.71	7.32	4.39
Cash Retained (M)	8.56	8.56	8.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.71	-7.32	-4.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-3.15	1.24	4.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	251.16	251.16	251.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	2.71%	3.71%	4.71%
Fair Value	$2.72	$3.51	$4.49
Upside / Downside	-27.74%	-6.97%	19.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	58.56	60.74	62.99	65.33	67.75	70.27	72.38
Payout Ratio	85.38%	86.31%	87.23%	88.15%	89.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.00	52.42	54.95	57.59	60.35	63.24	66.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	2.71%	3.71%	4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)	47.30	47.76	48.22
Year 2 PV (M)	44.74	45.62	46.50
Year 3 PV (M)	42.32	43.57	44.84
Year 4 PV (M)	40.02	41.61	43.23
Year 5 PV (M)	37.85	39.73	41.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	593.91	623.38	654.02
Equity Value (M)	806.14	841.67	878.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	251.16	251.16	251.16
Fair Value	$3.21	$3.35	$3.50
Upside / Downside	-14.86%	-11.11%	-7.22%

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Alwasail Industrial Company (9525.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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