Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Alwaha REIT Fund (9300.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.22 - $23.50$19.06
Multi-Stage$35.06 - $38.55$36.77
Blended Fair Value$27.92
Current Price$11.98
Upside133.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023
DPS0.00%0.00%0.750.430.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--74.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.26%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.943.091.85
Cash Retained (M)7.007.007.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.94-3.09-1.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.063.915.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.0015.0015.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.260.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.260.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.441.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.22$19.06$23.50
Upside / Downside27.05%59.14%96.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.7024.4524.2123.9623.7223.4924.19
Payout Ratio71.67%75.34%79.00%82.67%86.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.7018.4219.1219.8120.4821.1422.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.1217.3017.47
Year 2 PV (M)16.5316.8717.21
Year 3 PV (M)15.9216.4116.91
Year 4 PV (M)15.3015.9316.59
Year 5 PV (M)14.6815.4416.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)446.35469.59493.79
Equity Value (M)525.89551.54578.21
Shares Outstanding (M)15.0015.0015.00
Fair Value$35.06$36.77$38.55
Upside / Downside192.65%206.92%221.76%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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