Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Traton SE (8TRA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.68 - $46.41$38.09
Multi-Stage$63.03 - $69.32$66.12
Blended Fair Value$52.10
Current Price$27.28
Upside90.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-25.42%0.00%1.500.700.500.271.006.490.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--114.29%40.00%85.19%-73.05%-84.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%2.08%2.64%1.60%4.35%50.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,780.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)850.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)356.00222.50133.50
Cash Retained (M)930.00930.00930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-356.00-222.50-133.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)574.00707.50796.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.54500.54500.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.411.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.68$38.09$46.41
Upside / Downside12.46%39.62%70.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,780.001,762.201,744.581,727.131,709.861,692.761,743.55
Payout Ratio47.75%56.20%64.65%73.10%81.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)850.00990.401,127.901,262.551,394.401,523.491,612.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)915.50924.85934.19
Year 2 PV (M)963.77983.541,003.51
Year 3 PV (M)997.251,028.091,059.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,018.101,060.301,103.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,028.241,081.781,137.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,628.2928,014.8829,458.65
Equity Value (M)31,551.1533,093.4334,697.22
Shares Outstanding (M)500.54500.54500.54
Fair Value$63.03$66.12$69.32
Upside / Downside131.06%142.36%154.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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