Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

OPNET Technologies Co., Ltd. (8034.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.49 - $13.77$11.57
Multi-Stage$17.38 - $19.01$18.18
Blended Fair Value$14.87
Current Price$18.25
Upside-18.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.280.641.070.000.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--100.00%-40.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.99%2.12%6.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)75.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.169.475.68
Cash Retained (M)0.820.820.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.16-9.47-5.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14.34-8.66-4.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.4158.4158.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.281.281.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.25-0.15-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.49$11.57$13.77
Upside / Downside-47.99%-36.62%-24.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)75.7975.0474.2973.5472.8172.0874.24
Payout Ratio98.92%97.14%95.35%93.57%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.9872.8970.8368.8166.8364.8768.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)66.3767.0467.72
Year 2 PV (M)58.7259.9361.15
Year 3 PV (M)51.9453.5555.19
Year 4 PV (M)45.9347.8349.80
Year 5 PV (M)40.6042.7144.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)751.68790.82831.58
Equity Value (M)1,015.241,061.891,110.34
Shares Outstanding (M)58.4158.4158.41
Fair Value$17.38$18.18$19.01
Upside / Downside-4.76%-0.39%4.16%

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