DDM Analysis: 688009.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.24 - $3.20	$2.71
Multi-Stage	$3.68 - $4.03	$3.85
Blended Fair Value	$3.28
Current Price	$5.38
Upside	-39.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.77%	0.00%	0.23	0.19	0.17	0.21	0.20	0.22	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.31
YoY Growth	-	-	18.69%	13.71%	-19.49%	5.58%	-9.41%	35.29%	96.60%	-6.80%	-71.47%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.10%	3.45%	3.15%	4.77%	3.55%	3.53%	1.34%	0.68%	0.73%	2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,420.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,883.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,536.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	684.05	427.53	256.52
Cash Retained (M)	1,536.38	1,536.38	1,536.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-684.05	-427.53	-256.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	852.34	1,108.85	1,279.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,535.67	10,535.67	10,535.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.28	0.30
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.24	$2.71	$3.20
Upside / Downside	-58.43%	-49.64%	-40.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,420.24	3,386.04	3,352.18	3,318.66	3,285.47	3,252.61	3,350.19
Payout Ratio	55.08%	62.06%	69.05%	76.03%	83.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,883.86	2,101.50	2,314.60	2,523.24	2,727.46	2,927.35	3,098.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,901.87	1,921.28	1,940.69
Year 2 PV (M)	1,895.75	1,934.64	1,973.92
Year 3 PV (M)	1,870.32	1,928.16	1,987.18
Year 4 PV (M)	1,829.65	1,905.48	1,983.65
Year 5 PV (M)	1,777.20	1,869.75	1,966.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	29,487.92	31,023.43	32,622.24
Equity Value (M)	38,762.72	40,582.73	42,473.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,535.67	10,535.67	10,535.67
Fair Value	$3.68	$3.85	$4.03
Upside / Downside	-31.61%	-28.40%	-25.07%

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China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited (688009.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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