Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lumax International Corp., Ltd. (6192.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.11 - $201.79$157.43
Multi-Stage$140.26 - $153.22$146.62
Blended Fair Value$152.02
Current Price$98.00
Upside55.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.40%3.05%4.963.974.413.753.643.643.642.453.673.67
YoY Growth--25.00%-10.00%17.65%3.03%0.00%0.00%48.50%-33.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.68%4.01%5.81%4.51%4.36%5.93%4.57%3.83%5.47%6.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,006.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)477.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)201.28125.8075.48
Cash Retained (M)477.56477.56477.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-201.28-125.80-75.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.28351.76402.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)96.9496.9496.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.634.15
LTM Dividend per Share5.465.465.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.634.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.319.089.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Fair Value$122.11$157.43$201.79
Upside / Downside24.60%60.64%105.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,006.421,042.431,079.741,118.381,158.401,199.861,235.85
Payout Ratio52.55%60.04%67.53%75.02%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.86625.86729.14839.00955.791,079.871,143.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate2.58%3.58%4.58%
Year 1 PV (M)565.76571.28576.79
Year 2 PV (M)595.82607.49619.28
Year 3 PV (M)619.76638.06656.72
Year 4 PV (M)638.23663.48689.48
Year 5 PV (M)651.83684.23717.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,526.0711,049.2411,593.02
Equity Value (M)13,597.4614,213.7814,853.18
Shares Outstanding (M)96.9496.9496.94
Fair Value$140.26$146.62$153.22
Upside / Downside43.13%49.61%56.34%

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