Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SY Holdings Group Limited (6069.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.06 - $134.73$42.69
Multi-Stage$20.07 - $21.94$20.99
Blended Fair Value$31.84
Current Price$10.73
Upside196.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.26%0.00%0.250.070.070.050.040.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--255.83%4.82%32.82%16.72%23.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%1.57%1.19%0.79%0.84%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)673.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)658.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.6884.1850.51
Cash Retained (M)15.3715.3715.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.68-84.18-50.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-119.31-68.80-35.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)979.48979.48979.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$23.06$42.69$134.73
Upside / Downside114.93%297.87%1,155.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)673.41706.61741.44778.00816.35856.60882.30
Payout Ratio97.72%96.17%94.63%93.09%91.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)658.03679.57701.63724.21747.32770.94816.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)632.55638.64644.73
Year 2 PV (M)607.90619.66631.53
Year 3 PV (M)584.06601.08618.43
Year 4 PV (M)561.00582.90605.44
Year 5 PV (M)538.69565.11592.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,729.1317,549.6018,401.94
Equity Value (M)19,653.3420,556.9921,494.62
Shares Outstanding (M)979.48979.48979.48
Fair Value$20.07$20.99$21.94
Upside / Downside87.00%95.60%104.52%

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