Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.,Ltd. (605599.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.80 - $207.12$194.10
Multi-Stage$128.01 - $140.44$134.11
Blended Fair Value$164.10
Current Price$14.09
Upside1,064.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS9.61%0.00%0.700.460.360.000.470.440.380.320.000.00
YoY Growth--52.23%27.75%0.00%-100.00%5.80%16.20%18.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.92%3.13%3.50%0.00%3.24%3.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)811.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)560.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)162.35101.4760.88
Cash Retained (M)251.74251.74251.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-162.35-101.47-60.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.39150.27190.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)779.43779.43779.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate1.04%1.04%1.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$175.80$194.10$207.12
Upside / Downside1,147.66%1,277.57%1,369.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)811.74864.50920.69980.541,044.271,112.151,145.51
Payout Ratio68.99%73.19%77.39%81.60%85.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)560.00632.73712.55800.07895.961,000.931,059.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.04%1.04%1.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)620.34626.22632.10
Year 2 PV (M)684.91697.95711.12
Year 3 PV (M)753.97775.62797.67
Year 4 PV (M)827.80859.63892.38
Year 5 PV (M)906.68950.47995.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,981.65100,617.60105,430.98
Equity Value (M)99,775.35104,527.49109,460.19
Shares Outstanding (M)779.43779.43779.43
Fair Value$128.01$134.11$140.44
Upside / Downside808.52%851.79%896.70%

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