Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.,Ltd. (605337.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.52 - $51.61$24.08
Multi-Stage$10.05 - $10.95$10.49
Blended Fair Value$17.29
Current Price$12.76
Upside35.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.41%0.00%0.470.220.240.190.010.330.140.000.070.00
YoY Growth--112.39%-7.14%28.26%2,928.69%-98.13%131.20%5,032.63%-95.92%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.98%1.64%1.19%1.10%0.04%2.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.9026.8116.09
Cash Retained (M)16.4816.4816.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.90-26.81-16.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.41-10.330.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)416.40416.40416.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Fair Value$14.52$24.08$51.61
Upside / Downside13.79%88.73%304.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.48228.24242.87258.45275.03292.67301.45
Payout Ratio92.31%91.85%91.39%90.93%90.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.00209.64221.96235.00248.80263.40278.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.41%6.41%7.41%
Year 1 PV (M)191.57193.38195.20
Year 2 PV (M)185.34188.87192.44
Year 3 PV (M)179.31184.47189.72
Year 4 PV (M)173.48180.16187.02
Year 5 PV (M)167.83175.94184.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,286.913,445.803,610.78
Equity Value (M)4,184.434,368.624,559.52
Shares Outstanding (M)416.40416.40416.40
Fair Value$10.05$10.49$10.95
Upside / Downside-21.25%-17.78%-14.19%

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