Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Xianheng International Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (605056.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.01 - $5.69$4.84
Multi-Stage$6.39 - $6.99$6.68
Blended Fair Value$5.76
Current Price$16.22
Upside-64.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-13.33%0.00%0.150.350.340.390.300.300.280.140.000.00
YoY Growth---57.34%3.31%-14.62%30.03%-0.05%6.21%107.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%2.46%2.68%2.73%1.54%1.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.8731.7919.08
Cash Retained (M)108.23108.23108.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.87-31.79-19.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.3676.4389.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.83417.83417.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.01$4.84$5.69
Upside / Downside-75.28%-70.18%-64.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.34251.80249.28246.79244.32241.87249.13
Payout Ratio57.45%63.96%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.11161.05175.66189.97203.98217.69230.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)145.05146.53148.01
Year 2 PV (M)142.51145.43148.39
Year 3 PV (M)138.82143.11147.49
Year 4 PV (M)134.25139.81145.55
Year 5 PV (M)129.05135.76142.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,979.002,082.052,189.35
Equity Value (M)2,668.672,792.702,921.55
Shares Outstanding (M)417.83417.83417.83
Fair Value$6.39$6.68$6.99
Upside / Downside-60.62%-58.79%-56.89%

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