Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co., Ltd (605009.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.31 - $231.56$97.99
Multi-Stage$38.06 - $41.48$39.74
Blended Fair Value$68.86
Current Price$32.25
Upside113.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS46.71%0.00%1.762.131.510.690.050.260.240.170.080.00
YoY Growth---17.32%41.38%117.38%1,167.40%-78.90%8.60%42.61%102.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.19%8.07%4.88%2.45%0.09%0.64%0.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)296.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)267.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.2837.0522.23
Cash Retained (M)28.5328.5328.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.28-37.05-22.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-30.76-8.536.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.61154.61154.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.060.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.060.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.681.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.31$97.99$231.56
Upside / Downside77.71%203.83%618.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)296.42315.69336.21358.06381.34406.12418.31
Payout Ratio90.38%90.30%90.23%90.15%90.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)267.90285.07303.35322.80343.49365.51386.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)260.70263.17265.64
Year 2 PV (M)253.69258.52263.40
Year 3 PV (M)246.87253.96261.18
Year 4 PV (M)240.24249.48258.98
Year 5 PV (M)233.78245.07256.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,649.024,873.575,106.72
Equity Value (M)5,884.306,143.776,412.71
Shares Outstanding (M)154.61154.61154.61
Fair Value$38.06$39.74$41.48
Upside / Downside18.01%23.21%28.61%

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