Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. (603899.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.62 - $59.66$39.46
Multi-Stage$21.41 - $23.31$22.34
Blended Fair Value$30.90
Current Price$27.43
Upside12.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.04%40.58%0.810.500.610.500.400.300.250.250.250.25
YoY Growth--61.69%-17.00%20.04%26.01%33.33%20.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%828.03%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.30%1.23%1.03%0.47%0.65%0.67%0.82%1.41%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,322.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)922.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)400.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)264.51165.3299.19
Cash Retained (M)400.45400.45400.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-264.51-165.32-99.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.94235.13301.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)918.51918.51918.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.62$39.46$59.66
Upside / Downside0.69%43.87%117.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,322.531,408.491,500.041,597.541,701.381,811.971,866.33
Payout Ratio69.72%73.78%77.83%81.89%85.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)922.081,039.141,167.521,308.201,462.241,630.781,726.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)936.65945.53954.41
Year 2 PV (M)948.58966.65984.89
Year 3 PV (M)958.06985.561,013.58
Year 4 PV (M)965.251,002.371,040.55
Year 5 PV (M)970.331,017.201,065.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,887.0715,606.1216,352.69
Equity Value (M)19,665.9420,523.4221,411.98
Shares Outstanding (M)918.51918.51918.51
Fair Value$21.41$22.34$23.31
Upside / Downside-21.94%-18.54%-15.01%

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