Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Jiangsu New Energy Development Co., Ltd. (603693.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.54 - $63.54$23.90
Multi-Stage$9.01 - $9.84$9.42
Blended Fair Value$16.66
Current Price$12.85
Upside29.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.13%4.23%0.340.320.270.250.250.280.270.250.100.11
YoY Growth--3.88%18.87%8.17%0.32%-8.62%1.18%7.77%144.50%-4.37%-51.51%
Dividend Yield--2.72%3.11%2.21%1.71%2.52%4.14%2.18%2.53%1.04%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)383.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.6547.9128.74
Cash Retained (M)150.96150.96150.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.65-47.91-28.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.31103.05122.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)891.48891.48891.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Fair Value$13.54$23.90$63.54
Upside / Downside5.40%86.03%394.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)383.25406.92432.05458.73487.06517.13532.65
Payout Ratio60.61%66.49%72.37%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.29270.55312.66358.93409.72465.42492.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Year 1 PV (M)248.51250.87253.23
Year 2 PV (M)263.78268.82273.91
Year 3 PV (M)278.14286.15294.31
Year 4 PV (M)291.63302.88314.45
Year 5 PV (M)304.28319.02334.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,646.506,968.547,302.94
Equity Value (M)8,032.838,396.278,773.17
Shares Outstanding (M)891.48891.48891.48
Fair Value$9.01$9.42$9.84
Upside / Downside-29.88%-26.71%-23.42%

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