Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd. (603565.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.56 - $23.34$17.77
Multi-Stage$12.00 - $13.02$12.51
Blended Fair Value$15.14
Current Price$10.89
Upside39.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.43%73.83%0.840.151.500.290.100.070.050.250.000.06
YoY Growth--462.95%-90.06%423.48%200.00%32.68%45.32%-80.48%6,472.66%-93.56%1,699.48%
Dividend Yield--8.76%1.65%12.97%2.35%0.84%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,137.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,864.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)272.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)427.42267.14160.28
Cash Retained (M)272.86272.86272.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-427.42-267.14-160.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)-154.565.72112.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.572,100.572,100.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.000.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate11.83%11.83%11.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.56$17.77$23.34
Upside / Downside24.48%63.20%114.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,137.092,276.002,423.942,581.502,749.302,928.003,015.84
Payout Ratio87.23%87.79%88.34%88.89%89.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,864.241,998.012,141.302,294.772,459.152,635.202,789.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.83%11.83%11.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,769.801,786.581,803.35
Year 2 PV (M)1,680.081,712.081,744.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,594.851,640.631,687.28
Year 4 PV (M)1,513.881,572.101,631.99
Year 5 PV (M)1,436.971,506.381,578.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,218.6718,050.3418,913.84
Equity Value (M)25,214.2626,268.1227,359.29
Shares Outstanding (M)2,100.572,100.572,100.57
Fair Value$12.00$12.51$13.02
Upside / Downside10.23%14.83%19.60%

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