Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Henan Thinker Automatic Equipment Co., Ltd. (603508.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$272.69 - $321.28$301.08
Multi-Stage$226.42 - $248.38$237.19
Blended Fair Value$269.14
Current Price$33.50
Upside703.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.74%112.20%1.080.540.600.230.240.180.110.080.060.07
YoY Growth--98.11%-10.04%166.54%-4.66%30.83%60.38%35.11%39.53%-10.91%11,498.40%
Dividend Yield--4.63%2.62%3.68%1.55%1.62%0.69%0.49%0.45%0.19%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)617.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)548.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.4377.1446.29
Cash Retained (M)68.7768.7768.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.43-77.14-46.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-54.66-8.3722.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)382.02382.02382.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate-1.55%-1.55%-1.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$272.69$301.08$321.28
Upside / Downside714.00%798.76%859.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)617.15657.26699.99745.48793.94845.55870.91
Payout Ratio88.86%89.09%89.31%89.54%89.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)548.38585.53625.19667.53712.73760.99805.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.55%-1.55%-1.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)589.15594.73600.32
Year 2 PV (M)632.94645.00657.17
Year 3 PV (M)679.98699.50719.39
Year 4 PV (M)730.52758.61787.51
Year 5 PV (M)784.81822.71862.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,080.6787,093.5091,259.90
Equity Value (M)86,498.0790,614.0694,886.36
Shares Outstanding (M)382.02382.02382.02
Fair Value$226.42$237.19$248.38
Upside / Downside575.88%608.04%641.43%

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