Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Hangcha Group Co., Ltd (603298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.87 - $72.33$47.27
Multi-Stage$24.07 - $26.28$25.16
Blended Fair Value$36.21
Current Price$28.73
Upside26.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.05%13.45%0.380.310.290.270.170.140.150.140.120.11
YoY Growth--19.66%9.32%5.39%62.45%16.04%-0.65%2.89%16.00%8.08%6.01%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.55%2.05%2.86%1.01%2.44%1.86%1.89%0.89%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,201.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)440.36275.22165.13
Cash Retained (M)1,532.941,532.941,532.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-440.36-275.22-165.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,092.581,257.721,367.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,313.231,313.231,313.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.961.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.87$47.27$72.33
Upside / Downside14.41%64.54%151.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,201.792,344.912,497.332,659.652,832.533,016.653,107.15
Payout Ratio30.38%42.30%54.23%66.15%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668.85991.941,354.211,759.392,211.512,714.982,874.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)894.88903.37911.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,102.171,123.161,144.35
Year 3 PV (M)1,291.821,328.911,366.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,464.911,521.251,579.19
Year 5 PV (M)1,622.441,700.811,782.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,238.9726,458.0327,723.73
Equity Value (M)31,615.2033,035.5134,507.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,313.231,313.231,313.23
Fair Value$24.07$25.16$26.28
Upside / Downside-16.20%-12.44%-8.54%

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