Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Goneo Group Co., Ltd. (603195.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.89 - $116.62$73.27
Multi-Stage$209.74 - $231.61$220.46
Blended Fair Value$146.86
Current Price$44.66
Upside228.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.791.300.950.801.470.000.121.340.410.30
YoY Growth--38.12%36.08%19.66%-45.81%0.00%-100.00%-91.18%225.59%36.64%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.48%2.55%1.81%1.86%2.47%0.00%0.42%4.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,987.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,104.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)883.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)797.53498.45299.07
Cash Retained (M)883.52883.52883.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-797.53-498.45-299.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.00385.07584.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.250.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate2.04%2.04%2.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$49.89$73.27$116.62
Upside / Downside11.71%64.05%161.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,987.633,947.753,908.273,869.193,830.503,792.193,905.96
Payout Ratio77.84%80.27%82.71%85.14%87.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,104.103,169.043,232.373,294.123,354.313,412.973,613.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.04%2.04%2.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,074.373,105.743,137.11
Year 2 PV (M)3,042.133,104.533,167.57
Year 3 PV (M)3,007.633,100.653,195.56
Year 4 PV (M)2,971.103,094.243,221.16
Year 5 PV (M)2,932.743,085.463,244.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)310,463.50326,630.06343,463.17
Equity Value (M)325,491.48342,120.67359,429.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,551.851,551.851,551.85
Fair Value$209.74$220.46$231.61
Upside / Downside369.65%393.64%418.62%

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