Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. (603187.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.67 - $39.59$26.50
Multi-Stage$14.22 - $15.50$14.85
Blended Fair Value$20.67
Current Price$15.06
Upside37.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.41%24.82%0.550.250.190.270.180.120.000.080.090.09
YoY Growth--118.02%31.69%-30.10%54.50%41.50%5,586.28%-97.38%-6.30%-4.34%56.67%
Dividend Yield--4.88%1.60%1.00%1.26%0.66%1.09%0.02%0.69%0.74%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)191.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4647.7928.67
Cash Retained (M)191.15191.15191.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.46-47.79-28.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.69143.36162.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.12384.12384.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.67$26.50$39.59
Upside / Downside23.96%75.97%162.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.29407.14433.60461.78491.80523.77539.48
Payout Ratio50.00%58.00%66.00%74.00%82.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.14236.14286.17341.72403.28471.39499.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)212.65214.67216.69
Year 2 PV (M)232.09236.51240.97
Year 3 PV (M)249.58256.74264.04
Year 4 PV (M)265.25275.45285.94
Year 5 PV (M)279.22292.70306.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,222.894,426.864,638.63
Equity Value (M)5,461.675,702.935,952.97
Shares Outstanding (M)384.12384.12384.12
Fair Value$14.22$14.85$15.50
Upside / Downside-5.59%-1.42%2.91%

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